Patrick Vallance should stop hanging out with Neil ‘500,000 deaths by the end of April’ Ferguson!
Putting an exponential curve at the end of current available data which actually shows a slight decrease as of 15th September is not evidence and is utterly meaningless.
Its also strange that they used France & Spain in the first graph to instil fear as if we did follow the same trajectory as those countries we would be looking at a much flatter curve with around 10,000 cases per day and no where near 50,000. Where did they even get that figure?
I don’t doubt Patrick Vallances expertise in pharmacology, but he’s clearly a bit rubbish at maths.
Another graph they put up before this graph above had me thinking “That’s over such a short time period. It looks like they’re massaging the statistics.” They clearly were.
Also Patrick Vallance speaking in reference to a graph labelled “England, estimate of weekly rate of new cases per 100,000 population, by age group from TESTING DATA” said the number of new cases is NOT due to increased testing.
Here are all the slides from today. Some of them are ideal to use if you want to fail an exam. How data from France and Spain is relevent to whaty is likely to happen here is impossible to work out. It was an exercise in scare mongering.