The projection my friend made has been an overestimate by the look of it.
We have enough data now to say that the deaths are plateauing and will be dropping after mid Febuary.
We are looking for these lines to hit 1 and then deaths will have reached their peak.
Cases are on their way down.
So cases are going down but deaths are still high. A death is regestered as a death occurring 28 days after a Covid test. Hence the lag.
From last March to this March we are talking about 120,000 to 130,000 deaths. But there was a drop in everything over the Summer indicating that this is a seasonal virus. So maybe we should compare last spring to this Winter. This thing looks seasonal therefore we can assume that cases, hospitalisations and deaths will decrease to virtually nothing over the Summer of this year. As people in SAGE want to defeat Covid rather than protect the public or the NHS, we can expect another Lockdown around October. Who voted to wipe out the virus? Who voted to wipe out small bussinesses? Have we been consulted? Why are we being treated like children?
But hope still burns. Over 4,000,000 people have been vaccinated. The Scond dose is needed but the first does gives resistance. So cases, hospitalisations and deaths will go down to areasonable level. Then how the SAGE government will attempt to keep control will be interesting.
In the mean time.